Murray Stahl, the founder of Horizon Kinetics, was that rarest of commodities in the investment industry - an original thinker. The world is a slightly dimmer place for his passing. I first encountered the writings of Murray around 2010 and it was a revelation. If anyone happens to have any of his collections, I would be deeply grateful to receive them. I believe he started out as a staid Utilities analyst, which makes his iconoclastic approach to investing all the more sur

John Carreyrou, formerly of the Wall Street Journal and now with the New York Times, has published a masterful investigation into the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of bitcoin.  I'd hate to reveal any spoilers, so I won't go into the details. My Quest to Solve Bitcoin’s Great Mystery If you haven't read the piece, do yourself a favor and take 30 minutes to do so now. I consider it a masterclass in deep research as well as an exploration of how AI is transforming th

Overlap Holdings (414A) is a manga and light novel publisher that listed in October 2025. The company IPOd at 1,650 yen, traded lower on its first day, and is now priced at 963 yen (-42%) This may be an interesting time to look at the stock. 1H results on April 14th may bring a catalyst. The company has committed to a 40% dividend payout ratio, but have yet to disclose their actual forecast dividend for the current fiscal year ending in August. It is a small company with a

I was recently eating sushi with an executive at a company I used to invest in.  He admitted how much the management team used to dread our quarterly meetings. I could hardly believe it. While I admit I was demanding and didn't hold back on calling a spade a spade, there were no theatrics or threats of bodily harm.  In my mind, I am a pussycat. The company has an excellent business model and product lineup, but suffered from poor capital efficiency and even worse investor com

Just a quick followup on the Raksul saga. The company managed to cut a backroom deal with major shareholders Aspex and Keyrock, giving them the right to participate in the post-privatized company. They also raised the TOB price from 1,710 yen to 1,900 yen. With the bump and tender of ~13% of additional shareholders, the success of the deal instantly went from low to very high. I was worried about the possibility of paper hands folding and sold most of my stake when shares tr

Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I'm just a caveman. Your DCF assumptions frighten and confuse me. I was surprised to see Raksul announce an MBO at the low, low price of 1,710 yen, but maybe should not be considering some of the past questionable related party transactions done by the company. Josys in particular. The financial advisors, KPMG and Plutus, gave similar estimates for the company based on the "business plan" they received from management. I think these valuatio

“Give me where to stand, and I will move the Earth” – Archimedes, as attributed by Pappus of Alexandria There are two types of investments I like. One is a company with underpriced or unrecognized optionality. For example, in 2015 Nintendo traded at just 5-6x trough EBIT after the underwhelming releases of a few consoles. The company had a lot of positive optionality from 1) the potential release of a new hit console akin to the Wii or DS, or 2) monetization of their vast IP