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Raksul 4384 - Place Your Bets?
Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I'm just a caveman. Your DCF assumptions frighten and confuse me. I was surprised to see Raksul announce an MBO at the low, low price of 1,710 yen, but maybe should not be considering some of the past questionable related party transactions done by the company. Josys in particular. The financial advisors, KPMG and Plutus, gave similar estimates for the company based on the "business plan" they received from management. I think these valuatio
Patrick Rial
Dec 22, 20252 min read


The Three Levers
“Give me where to stand, and I will move the Earth” – Archimedes, as attributed by Pappus of Alexandria There are two types of investments I like. One is a company with underpriced or unrecognized optionality. For example, in 2015 Nintendo traded at just 5-6x trough EBIT after the underwhelming releases of a few consoles. The company had a lot of positive optionality from 1) the potential release of a new hit console akin to the Wii or DS, or 2) monetization of their vast IP
Patrick Rial
Oct 20, 20252 min read
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