Raksul 4384 - Paper Hands

Just a quick followup on the Raksul saga.

The company managed to cut a backroom deal with major shareholders Aspex and Keyrock, giving them the right to participate in the post-privatized company.

They also raised the TOB price from 1,710 yen to 1,900 yen. With the bump and tender of ~13% of additional shareholders, the success of the deal instantly went from low to very high.

I was worried about the possibility of paper hands folding and sold most of my stake when shares traded between 2,050 and 2,100 yen. I sold my remaining portion around 1,900 yen after the bump. Thus, I netted a ~15% return over about 2 months. This, sadly, was no better than the market!

I have been on the losing end of enough rug pulls to be cautious, and thus sold before the TOB increase was announced, which worked out in my favor this time.

I applaud Aspex and Keyrock as they should do well with the privatized entity, although governance is likely to go from bad to worse without the scrutiny of public markets. I wish them well.